Cheltenham Festival Preview
 Triumph Hurdle 
This is 2m 1f on the stiffer of the two courses for 4yos and always run a right clip so it could find out the likes of Grandouet and A Media Luz who look sharper, flat-track types. Zarkander won the best guide in the Adonis Hurdle but will be the first winner of this race to score off just one hurdling run if successful. He may be the Nicholls number one even if Sam Winner has stronger form, but do not dismiss his supposed third-string Brampour. He was a real stayer on the Flat and can be forgiven a defeat on his hurdling debut on a track like Kempton. 2m 1f off a fast pace with an uphill finish makes him interesting. Unaccompanied is the only serious Irish hope but being a big, shouldery filly I have doubts about her on an undulating track on goodish ground. She looks like she needs some cut as does Marsh Warbler. If the Triumph was run at Newbury, Aintree or Leopardstown I would be getting stuck into Unaccomapanied, but the ground on this particular course is a concern. Third Intention has been the money horse this week and decent ground is what he needs but his form has to be improve. A little dig in the ground would help Smad Place who is the most interesting runner for me. I disagree with all these pundits saying this is now a race for speed over stamina given it is a smaller field than in the past. I think Smad Place is all stamina hence my interest as he should love a fast-run 2m 1f with an uphill finish. Previous Report: 7th March 2011
I have been doing a bit of digging and since the race was first run in 1965, no winner has won off the back of just one run so, although he is nearly favourite, Zarkander has it all to do for me. Not many big fancies will have tried off one run. Master Of Arts and Mountain have tried recently, started at single-figure odds and both were well and truly stuffed. I am just not getting any good vibes for Grandouet and I can see him being weak in the betting. It wouldn’t surprise me if A Media Luz ended up being the shortest priced Nicky Henderson contender as he’s gunning for a hat-trick of wins in this race and his sixth in total. I thought it was interesting that Noel Fehily made Sam Winner his nap of the meeting given his connection to the Nicholls stable. He commented that he thought they have got him back to his best. If that is true and if he handles usual Friday Festival ground then he is a big player. Two big ‘ifs’ here though. Just a little dig in the ground is what connections of Smad Place are asking for, though I suspect connections of Marsh Warbler wouldn’t mind a deluge. The only serious Irish hope is the big, shouldery filly Unaccompanied. They would also prefer more juice in the ground for her and she gets a 7lbs sex allowance in Britain compared to just 5lbs in Ireland. Bet Now... Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle
Alarazi won the Imperial Cup very well and three horses have gone on to double up here since 1985, with two more finishing second, so he would be a just favourite. I do think this is the hottest County Hurdle for many a year as I also like Final Approach who couldn't have won the MCR Hurdle much more cosily. Sir Des Champs could be absolutely anything and may run here (has other entries). Dirar has been trained for this since winning the Ebor. Ski Sunday is with a trainer going places – she got him to win a good handicap on his first run and could easily have improved him again. Soldatino caught the eye in the totesport Trophy and won the Triumph last season. Snap Tie has been well backed for his seasonal return. He loves Cheltenham, goes particularly well fresh (only seasonal debut defeat was by Imperial Commander) and has been dropped 6lbs since he last run over hurdles so has plenty to recommend him, though he could end up with top weight. Bet Now... Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle
Kilcrea Kim is very tough and looks a real street fighter and that is what we want for this gruelling race. I also like the fact he has run well at the course before and steps back down to novice company, having mixed it in high quality handicaps including Sandown (where he won) that has thrown up loads of the festival winners in the last 20 years. Champion Court won the same novice hurdle in which four of the six winners of this race contested despite doing everything wrong. Well punted on the morning, his jumping was very novicey, yet he still won going away by seven lengths over 2m 4f and looks certain to be even better over this 3m. Forget his next run as he returned injured but he is over that, reportedly working well and Martin Keighley has described him as his best chance of the week. The ground will be key to the prospects of the well-fancied triumvirate of Back In Focus, Court In Motion and Join Together and it might not be soft enough for any of them. Bobs Worth could still run here but I am not sure he is as smart as many believe. There has been good money for Moonlight Drive which makes him interesting and Gagewell Flyer looks like switching from the Neptune to this race for Willie Mullins. Being only five-year-olds in a gruelling race would concern me for Sybarite and Mossley, but Habbie Simpson does interest me on his good runs at the course and promises to improve again for the step up to three miles. Previous Report: 7th March 2011
Philip Hobbs is reconsidering running Kilcrea Kim here, as the Pertemps Final is now also a possibility. The one horse firmly on course is Champion Court whose trainer Martin Keighley commented that he is their best hope of the week. He is working well and fully recovered from the injury he sustained in his last race. Regards the favourite, Back In Focus, Howard Johnson commented at the weekend that he only runs if the ground is soft enough for him. I wouldn't be fancying him on close to Good ground, neither would I fancy other leading hopes Court In Motion or Join Together on that type of ground either. The mover this week has been John Quinn's Moonlight Drive who only won a small race in the north having won a point-to-point but this stable doesn't deal in fools' missions. Bet Now... Gold Cup
My gut feeling is that Imperial Commander or Long Run will win. Nothing drastic there given they are the two market leaders and a horse in the front three in the betting has won the last ten renewals. The course and jumping are the two main queries with regards to Long Run, but he could be brilliant, and I always think it is worth chancing a horse that could be potentially brilliant if the odds allow. I am not that concerned about his jumping as I think it is much improved and the two defeats at Cheltenham were on the Old Course and the Gold Cup is run on the New Course. I also think he was over the top in last season's RSA and he looked like he blew up in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Imperial Commander sets the standard of course but no Gold Cup winner has been off the course for as long as him for at least 50 years so guesswork is involved in his well being. That's okay in a 33/1 shot but not so much in close to a 3/1 shot. It would be no surprise if he is too classy for these as he is one of the great Gold Cup winners on official figures but I would like to have seen him run since mid-November. I see Denman placing but not having what it takes to go all the way for the third year running. He has lost that mid-race ability to steadily kill off his rivals and has lost 7 of his last 8 races. I can't have Kauto Star winning at all as he had run below par on his last three starts. Pandorama is the right kind of age and does just keep on winning so he is not out of it but he probably won't have the soft ground he wants. Kempes isn't out of it either and I thought he did well to win the Irish Hennessy as that testing surface wasn't his ground and he will bounce off a better surface being an ex-Flat horse. He is coming right at the right time and has a bit of an Imperial Call feel about him. I can't have Midnight Chase as being good enough but Tidal Bay could run on very late to be a never-nearer second or third off exaggerated waiting tactics. If he can pull it off, he'd be the biggest monkey to ever win the Gold Cup. Previous Report: 7th March 2011
Diamond Harry missing the race is the week's big news on the Gold Cup front, which has seen the leading fancies all tighten up a little. In my view, it will be won by Long Run, Imperial Commander, Kempes or Pandorama. I feel the favourite is about the right price so no value (though I do see him shortening on the day). Whether Pandorama handles decent ground is debatable, but we don't know for sure and he is the right kind of age and does keep on winning. The Irish Hennessy winner Kempes is coming right at the right time and has a bit of an Imperial Call feel about him who was the last Irish Hennessy winner to also win the Gold Cup. His chance will be increased the closer it is to Good ground. Denman and Kauto Star will attract sentimental money and although I can see the former run a big race to be placed for the third year running, I can't see him go all the way. There appear to be much stronger vibes at Paul Nicholls' stable concerning Denman than Kauto Star. Two words on the Preview Evening circuit are that Albertas Run and Weird Al will end up here but they weren't from their actual connections. Bet Now... Christie's Foxhunter Chase
Baby Run deserves to be favourite on his win in this race last year and two successes in as many starts this season. However I can see the money coming for On The Fringe who could challenge him for favouritism. He is only six but a terrific prospect having won last season's Punchestown Champion Hunters' Chase where he beat Kilty Storm who was second in this race to Baby Run last year. Baby Run is not improving at the age of 11 but you can be sure that On The Fringe at the age of six still is. Gone To Lunch stays very well and runs Cheltenham well too. He loves decent ground and is also a player despite being a little long in the tooth. Dantes Storm is much improved for the switch to Alan and Lawney Hill, where he won by 38 lengths on their debut. He was a top pointer before that and they are confident that they have got shot of his tendency to jump a bit low and out to his left. He is a big improver and the hunter most likely to serve it up to the big two in my view. Nothing else really jumps off the page at me, so I'll be surprised if it is not won by one of this quartet. Bet Now... Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle
This is just the third running of this race and both winners to date were novices the previous season and had run well in a big-field handicap hurdle at Cheltenham. This looks the most likely contest that Sir Des Champs will contest at present as the money has rolled in for him over the last few days. The official Handicapper has admitted this is his worry horse as they have had to pretty much guess with him having won his only race in a small contest for Willie Mullins since coming over from France. The Alan King-trained Shalone is interesting as he was still in the World Hurdle until the six-day stage so he could be well handicapped off 139. He also had good form with class acts like Diamond Harry and Tataniano, in bumpers and over hurdles until he was injured. Eye-catching on both starts at Ascot, he looks like he is being brought along steadily for a big spring prize. The Imperial Cup winner Alarazi is also in this but you would think they would stick to 2m and the County Hurdle. David Pipe would dearly like to win this race and maybe Shoegazer is the pick of his runners having had a run here over an inadequate 2m in December and won well at Ffos Las last time out. Another to catch the eye a little is Whoops A Daisy if she runs (orginal plan was EBF Mares Final), as Henderson has a good record in this race (1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th in two runnings). Bet Now... Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
The Nicky Henderson-trained Tanks For That has been laid out for this since finishing second to Woolcombe Folly in December. If that horse were to go close in the Champion Chase, I think he will be mighty popular here, especially in the race named in honour of his trainer's father. If Woolcombe Folly totally blows out (I don't think he will) then I could see Anquetta go off favourite instead. However, Geraghty is likely to be on Tanks For That as he wouldn't be able to do 10st anyway on Anquetta. This is a race the trainer is desperate to win again and I do rate Anquetta as the main threat as novices fare well in this race and he also fits into the right area of the handicap that has thrown up 9 of the last 10 winners. Shoreacres and I'msingingtheblues have been the pair for money in the last week and I prefer the latter who has been running on ground he doesn't like and over trips longer than ideal for most of this season. Oh Crick won this race two years ago and has the look of fairly treated horse again, so I would have time for his chance as I would any novices on the day towards the foot of the weights. Bet Now... |
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