Cheltenham Festival Preview
 Jewson Novices' Chase 
I quite like Mr Gardner's chances of reversing Sandown form with Captain Chris if the latter runs here as Captain Chris looks happier on right-handed tracks having jumped out to his left at Cheltenham and Newbury. Don't get me wrong, I think Captain Chris has the most natural ability of any horse in this race but the configuration of Cheltenham could be the main sticking point. Mr Gardner would have not been beaten far at all by Medermit and Captain Chris but for making a late mistake in a Grade 1 last time out. This drop in class plus his positive style of racing should be ideally suited to Cheltenham. Noble Prince and Loosen My Load are the two big Irish challengers but I am not sure the former puts it all in when it hurts and the latter looks good dominating small fields in Ireland, but he won't find it easy to lead here. If Wishfull Thinking was to run here rather than in the RSA Chase, I make him a big player having looked very good over course and distance last time. Robinson Collonges made a bad mistake on this course last time which is slightly disconcerting. I don't think the rest are good enough. Bet Now... Pertemps Final
The David Pipe-trained Chartreux certainly caught the eye on his only start this season when travelling strongly to the final flight before blowing up through lack of a run. He has been held back since to protect his handicap mark and could go off favourite to give the stable back-to-back winners of the race. Last year's winner Buena Vista should be considered for each-way stakes, given his consistency at six previous runs at the festival. Barafundle had the opposition lengths back when second to Grands Crus at Haydock and then followed up at Newbury so he is a big player as is Sivota who could be best of the Irish challenge on a good run in the Leopardstown qualifier for this event. Rivage D'Or has been a mover recently for Dessie Hughes who won the race a few years back with Oulart. Others to note include Gwanako who has been trained specifically for this race by Paul Nicholls and the Grand National winner Don't Push It who has dropped to a very eye-catching mark over hurdles. Duke Of Lucca would also make some appeal here if this is the plan and given Good ground on his second to Peddlers Cross at the Grand National Meeting last season. Bet Now... Ryanair Chase
With Somersby being confirmed for the Champion Chase, Tranquil Sea scoping badly and missing the race, Riverside Theatre suffering a setback and missing the race and Weird Al heading for the Gold Cup instead, this race is in danger of falling apart. Word was that last year's winner Albertas Run would head for the Gold Cup as well but, in light of these omissions, it wouldn't surprise me at all if last year's winner comes back to defend his title. Albertas Run had shown more last season before winning this race than this campaign however, but he looks like getting his ground. Kalahari King's chance is based on his spring form of previous years rather than his achievements, or lack of them, this season. You can't knock a festival record of 423 and he showed his love of spring ground when also winning at the Aintree and Punchestown Festivals. Poquelin is the best horse in the race though, loves the New Course, comes off a career-best run last time and will enjoy the ground so is a deserving favourite. Last season's runner-up would be the third horse in seven years to go one place better on his second placing of last year if successful. Voy Por Ustedes has been supplemented to run here on his first start of the season and first run for Nicky Henderson, but he is cracking on a bit now and the impression given is that this is more of a prep-race for Aintree. Gauvain and J'y Vole have each-way chances, but the best shot could be the front running Rubi Light if he gets an uncontested lead. Previous Report: 7th March 2011
This race is in danger of falling apart somewhat. Riverside Theatre is definitely out through injury, Tom George ruled Nacarat out last week and Donald McCain Jnr stated on a preview night that last year's winner Albertas Run goes for the Gold Cup - and he has an obvious connection with the owner. That said, that comment was made before Riverside Theatre's injury so the Ryanair is weaker now which could force a rethink. As such Kalahari King continues to shorten and I thought it was interesting Ferdy Murphy said on a preview night that the plan was always this race as it is on the New Course. The thinking is that he is only 15.3 hands high and the first few fences on the Old Course are downhill and that scared him and put him on the back foot. There has not been much talk surrounding last season's third J'y Vole but any softening in the ground would certainly aid her cause. Don't be surprised if fellow Irish raider Rubi Light comes in for support, as he looks too big for a horse that could get loose up front. He comes in great heart having won a Grade 2 race last time out. Poquelin remains a solid favourite. Bet Now... World Hurdle
I think Big Buck's will win and any odds-against about him is a good price as I have no reason to believe he is not every bit as good as he was last season when he laughed off Time For Rupert to win this. Grands Crus is too short for me at around 9/4. As great as he looked in the Cleeve, I am not sure what he beat plus I think he would prefer more cut than he is likely to get to be at his very best. He is making the price for Big Buck's. I think Mourad has a great chance of beating him in the race for second as his quiet running style will be well suited to this race and I just feel punters have underestimated the ease of his last two wins. He and Grands Crus should be closer together in the betting. Fiveforthree is class but it is difficult to know just how much ability he retains after a series of injuries. If he is as good as ever, he could finish second, but we just don't know. I really can't fancy the rest at all with the exception of Ashkazar who could pick up the pieces for a place if they go too fast and he is ridden with exaggerated waiting tactics. Previous Report: 7th March 2011
Billed as a big head-to-head between Big Buck’s and Grands Crus, but I think it is much more open than that. The Irish triumvirate of Mourad, Solwhit and Fiveforethree are all genuine Grade 1 horses. There is no doubt that Big Buck’s, who Ruby Walsh made his best ride of the meeting at a recent Preview Evening, deserves to be a short-priced favourite. He‘s chasing an eleventh win on the spin and I think the money will come for him, especially if it does not look like being soft ground as punters may then start to oppose Grands Crus. The better the ground the more I fancy Mourad being the horse to give the defending two-time champion the most to do. His quiet style of creeping into the race will also be well suited to this contest. Solwhit brings top-class two-mile form to the table so the big question is whether his stamina will last out. If it does, he has every chance of being in the first three on official ratings. And do not dismiss Fiveforethree. Yes, he has had more than his share of injuries, but this is a serious contender when right and he returned with a smooth win last month. Bet Now... Byrne Group Plate
No surprise that Aigle D'Or was very well backed into favouritism after he was taken out of the Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase – it looks very tight now in a 24-runner handicap in which the last ten winners started at 12/1+. Nicky Henderson has trained four winners of this race though and he was well punted before winning his only start this season. This suggests they knew they had rejuvenated him from a disappointing first season over fences where he was winless so is still officially a novice. The novice Hollo Ladies has a sporting chance, as his trainer is mustard in handicaps at this meeting. He is a novice like last year's 1-2, and the stable believe he is much better than a handicapper. If they are right, we have got to be liking a handicap mark of 139. Quartz De Thaix is a big player having won easily last week, so has got the penalty to squeeze him into the weights. Like Aigle D'Or and Hollo Ladies, he is also a novice and his trainer, Venetia Williams, has a stunning record in this race with two winners and five places from ten runners. Copper Bleu won over this course and distance at last season's festival and has had just the one run this season over hurdles as a prep. He loves decent ground so can envisage a big run from him. Others to consider include Tharawaat to end a 28-year drought in this handicap for the Irish and Consigliere looks like he now wants this kind of trip and ran a cracker when a close-up third in last season's Grand Annual. Bet Now... Kim Muir Handicap Chase
Galant Nuit or Junior will probably start favourite here. Galant Nuit was unlucky when beaten in this race last season and races off just a 1lb higher mark. Nina Carberry is booked again and will be keen to atone for her ride last year where Ferdy Murphy suggested she gave him too much to do. Murphy, of course, has won this race twice before and Galant Nuit has been trained for this contest so his chance is an obvious one. Junior has three excellent pieces of place form at the course and the quality amateur Jamie Codd has been booked by David Pipe. He should go very well and his stablemate Gentle Ranger would also interest me if he ran here as I thought he may well have won the NH Chase last season until exiting at the top of the hill. He went on to win at the April Meeting by 13 lengths. Form figures would not bother me for a Pipe horse ahead of a festival handicap. Can't Buy Time has been the subject of interesting support over the last week from J P McManus and Jonjo O'Neill which caught the eye. Wolf Moon would be interesting if he gets in for the in-form Martin Keighley yard. This could be worth another look on the day. Bet Now... |
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