Cheltenham Festival Preview
 Supreme Novices' Hurdle 
Much has been made of which of the two Nicky Henderson horses stable jockey Barry Geraghty will ride. He's come down in favour of Spirit Son with McCoy coming in for a fantastic spare ride in Sprinter Sacre. The latter has a monster engine and could easily be good enough if he settles better, but the vibes given by the trainer are that he may have preferred he wait until next season rather than run him here. Spirit Son is sure to start second favourite now after two very easy wins on soft ground in Britain, but Henderson feels he will be even better on the faster surface he is likely to get here. Cue Card is the one to beat of course and he is already rated 8lbs higher now than last year's Supreme winner! The fact he has not run since mid-December is the main sticking point. I don't think Recession Proof is quite in this class, Zaidpour looks like a horse that would now prefer a longer trip (like his half-brother Zaynar) and I am not sure there will be enough dig in the ground for Al Ferof to be fully effective over 2m. Hidden Universe could be the best of the 16/1+ shots as he was a top bumper horse and would not have liked soft ground last time, or so those close to him are saying. Previous Report: 7th March 2011
Joe Tizzard reported that Cue Card worked amazingly last week and I am sure they have made the right decision to go here rather than the Champion Hurdle. Unlike last season's hot favourite Dunguib who had also won the previous season's Weatherbys Champion Bumper, Cue Card can jump. Spirit Son is a strong second favourite and the preferred of the Henderson runners as his trainer has suggested that he is their best chance of a winner for the week. Henderson also has Gibb River who is professional but doesn't excite and the very exciting Sprinter Sacre. I would prefer Spirit Son to Sprinter Sacre, as one looks a two-mile speed merchant, the other a top-class chaser in the making. With regards to Zaidpour, there are rumours (no more than that) he could be tried in first-time blinkers and I thought it was interesting that Noel Fehily on a preview panel last week said that Al Ferof will enjoy sitting handy off a strong pace over two miles. It will be interesting if Day Of A Lifetime takes on Zaidpour in the same ownership (rumours of switching to the Neptune) and Dunraven Storm runs here rather than the Neptune according to Richard Johnson but he did say he had a setback a few weeks ago which doesn't strike me as ideal. Bet Now... Arkle Challenge Trophy
Medermit has pretty much everything I look for in an Arkle winner - hurdles-race class, top yard, festival form, loves decent ground, jumps neatly and stays further so a fast-run two miles should be ideal. The Irish 2m novices look the worst in a while so I am struggling to fancy Realt Dubh and I also think it is a leap of faith to look at those at double figure prices with the exception of Rock Noir who could grab a place. I will be very surprised if the winner does not come from the front three in the betting. Ghizao has hardly been tipped up at all on the Preview Evening circuit as it is feared the ground may not be soft enough for him so, if you were thinking of hedging, I would look out for the race time of the Supreme Novices' Hurdle first and then take a judgement. Finian's Rainbow did not convince with his jumping last time out when held up but they are sure to ride him positively here so he is the one that can give Medermit most to do. If you are looking for an each-way alternative to the big three, I would prefer Rock Noir to Dan Breen as when he looks good, he really does look good although his jumping let him down last time. Previous Report: 7th March 2011
The main news this week is that connections of Starluck have thought better of going to the Arkle on his second chase start so the plan is Sandown and then Aintree. Probably the right decision, as I really don't think he is a Cheltenham horse. Medermit has been a mighty popular selection on the Preview Evening circuit so I can see him starting nearer 5/2 and he has hardened again this week off the back of Alan King nominating him as his best chance of the week. He really does look the professional's choice for the race. Nicky Henderson reported that Finian's Rainbow will be ridden more aggressively than at Warwick where his jumping was ragged when not getting things his own way. He didn't like being sat off the lead on that occasion but it's very hard leading the Arkle. Only Azertyuiop has made most of the running since 1980 and that was by accident rather than design as he was left in front by an early faller. The general feeling on the Preview Evening circuit is that Ghizao will struggle if it isn't soft ground and Captain Chris will head for the Jewson. Realt Dubh is getting a look-in as far as the Brits are concerned but there have been a few Irish voices suggesting the home team are rather overlooking him. Bet Now... Festival Handicap Chase
It wouldn't surprise me if Sunnyhillboy went off favourite given the J P McManus/A P McCoy factor. He has twice finished just behind Great Endeavour over 2m 5f and both promise to improve for the step up to 3m, so there should be little between them. The latter is rated 148 though and the last 11 winners have run off no more than 143 which slightly tempers enthusiasm for the Pipe horse, but he has to go well. As does Bensalem of course who runs off the same mark of 143 as last year. He is potentially a 160-rated horse so I couldn't blame anyone supporting him, though I do have a niggle concerning what this strong-travelling horse will actually find off the bridle. I know he has schooled well at pace and, in fairness, he jumped well in last year's race until that novicey mistake 2 out, but that fence is no longer there. Of those at double-figure prices, I would give Reve De Sivola a big shout and rate him the best of the novices. Don't forget novices may have won 4 of the last 7 runnings if Bensalem had negotiated two out last year. He is off an 8lbs lower mark than his hurdles rating and open to improvement moving up to 3m, which will also help his jumping in the early part of the race. Never out of the first four in seven runs at Cheltenham, you can see why I like his each-way chances. Ogee could make the frame again, he was unlucky to be only third last year as a terrible blunder on the first circuit put him on the back foot. Bet Now... Champion Hurdle
To say the non-declaration of Binocular was a choker for the race was an understatement as he was guaranteed to start favourite. Connections of all the main players have been talking a big game including Donald McCain Jnr regarding Peddlers Cross. I reckon he will go off third-favourite as he is not as sexy as Menorah or Hurricane Fly as he grinds it out rather than blinds rivals for speed. However that's exactly what I like about him - it's the profile of most recent Champion Hurdlers and I can see comparisons with the dual winner Hardy Eustace and Brave Inca in his running style. If I had to back one horse to finish in the first three regardless of finishing position it would be Menorah, but whether he is quite good enough to win is another matter. Unbeaten in three starts at the course and a slick hurdler with plenty of pace, he has to run well. I don't see him out of the first three but his form of beating two 4yos (receiving weight from one of them) on his last start was not deserving of him being promoted to favourite afterwards. Binocular coming out complicates things though. Hurricane Fly is a tricky horse to weight up, as we don't know how he will handle Cheltenham, whereas the other big two certainly do. Of the next ring of horses, - Oscar Whisky, Mille Chief and Dunguib - I would have Oscar Whisky as the most dangerous as his form isn't that far behind Binocular on official ratings, whereas Mille Chief is only a five-year-old and Dunguib still has it to do on form. Khyber Kim has each-way claims too but it is hard seeing him win at the age of nine. Previous Report: 7th March 2011
The race of the meeting for me and connections of the so-called big four - Binocular, Peddlers Cross, Menorah and Hurricane Fly - are all talking a good game, stating how well their preparation has been going. The case for the reigning title-holder Binocular is a strong one, as he officially put up the best performance in a two-mile hurdle since Istabraq when impressing in last season's race. He is also unlucky not to be chasing a hat trick of Champion Hurdle victories having been narrowly beaten in 2009. Peddlers Cross beat Binocular in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle when probably the fitter of the pair and we just don't know how good he is until he is beaten. The fact he won the Neptune over 2m5f last season is a bonus for a horse that also has plenty of speed, as it is a mixture of speed and stamina that is required. Istabraq and Hardy Eustace also won the Neptune before winning the Champion Hurdle. Menorah is unbeaten in three starts at Cheltenham and is a very slick and progressive hurdler. Successful in the Supreme Novices' Hurdle last season, he is bidding to become the first winner of that race to win the Champion Hurdle the following season for 40 years. It could be argued that Menorah only really beat novices last time out and it's been 17 years since a Champion Hurdle winner has been off the course for as long as Philip Hobbs' contender. Hurricane Fly is the big Irish hope. As brilliant as he is in Ireland, he has never raced in Britain, which means we don't really know how good his form is in relation to the best of the home team who are all proven on the course. Willie Mullins' charge has yet to experience Cheltenham and Hurricane Fly's sire's progeny are an unappealing 0-44 over the course. What Hurricane Fly does possess, however, is a powerful combination of speed and stamina and also a telling turn of foot so he will be danger to all. Dunguib, Oscar Whisky and Mille Chief make up the magnificent seven and are three more legitimate second-season hurdler contenders that have the potential to make a big splash here. Don't forget last season's runner-up Khyber Kim either, who is yet another strong travelling horse and loves the course. Bet Now... Cross Country Handicap Chase
I will be shocked if Garde Champetre does not finish in the first four and very surprised if not in the first two. I still have him as by far the most likely winner. A two-time winner of the race, he has been beaten on his last two starts at the course where a mistake at the wrong time cost him dear both times. He also won the best trial (the P.P. Hogan Memorial Chase) last time out that three winners of this race also won in the last five years. Maljimar is the one that can give him most to do and could be the first ever British-trained winner of this race. Garde Champetre only beat him by 3 lengths the last time they met over these fences in December 2009 and has not run over them since. What I liked about that run was that it was his only go over these fences and I know from my stats it is incredibly difficult to win a race like this on your cross-country debut. He will know more this time. L'Ami has finished second more times in his career than has won which tells a story, A New Story's only win in the last four years was in this race but a record of around 1-60 hardly appeals, I don't think Sizing Australia truly stays and Poker De Sivola will be doing well to win on his cross-country debut as we have to go back to 1995 to find the last winner of any on this course to manage that. The rest have it all to do. Bet Now... David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle
An on-song Quevega should be far too good for these, and the reigning two-time defending title-holder, should be odds-on to complete her hat trick. I wouldn't be concerned she hasn't run this season as she had not run for 296 days before winning easily in last year's race. There was not a fitter horse all week in the paddock beforehand and Ruby Walsh has been waxing lyrical about her recently. Sparky May is a deserving second favourite - alright on her Ascot defeat of last season's runner-up in this race Carole's Legacy - but if L'Accordioniste runs to her potential, I think she could be the main danger as, in time, I think she will be top class. Magens Star may need more give but she is a very useful novice and was a smart Flat horse and, of the bigger-priced horses, the plan was always to come here fresh with La Vecchia Scuola who has improved on the Flat and was second in the Cesarewitch. The faster the ground, the better her chance. Bet Now... Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase
The goalposts have changed this year as this is now a 0-140 novices' handicap chase so we are not really comparing apples with apples if looking for a guide from trends from previous renewals. It looks wide open but Tullamore Dew deserves more respect than most having finished second at the festival last season and won two of his four chase starts including a second to the Arkle favourite Medermit. The Knoxs could be interesting at a big price. Falling on his first two chase starts is hardly ideal, but he won in a fast time last time out and if he jumps cleanly, he could be a big player. Definity may start favourite for Paul Nicholls who won this race with Chapoturgeon but he is out of a real stayer so is 2m 4f far enough for him on likely quickish ground? Divers has been well fancied for a long time for this race by festival handicap specialist Ferdy Murphy and others to consider also include Quantitativeeasing for Nicky Henderson and J P McManus and On Borrowed Wings who caught the eye at Ascot over hurdles. Bet Now... |
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