Cheltenham Festival Preview
 National Hunt Chase 
Alfa Beat is the favourite on chase ratings but it doesn't always work out that way in the NH Chase as most winners are rated in the 130s beforehand and the 140+ horses have all been beaten. Alfa Beat is rated 149. Beshabar looks like he will stay every yard of this trip, which is priority number one for a four-mile race. He has also run well on the course, has the requisite class levels, he should enjoy the ground and has the stamp of a NH Chase winner being a powerfully-built chaser that will gallop all day. In addition to Alfa Beat the Irish are strong. Chicago Grey should run well and brought down Beshabar when they met here in December when both were travelling well (has also run well against Time For Rupert) and Some Target who won the Punchestown Grand National Trial against experienced handicappers. Sona Sasta is interesting for the Pipe after facile wins. If Magnanimity runs here he brings Irish Grade 1 form to the table and, given his sublime record in the race, we have to look twice at whatever Jonjo O'Neill runs - Aberdale looks his most interesting runner. Bet Now... Neptune Investments Management Novices' Hurdle
I think So Young will start favourite over Oscars Well if he runs here. Unbeaten on his last five starts (three bumpers in France and two novice hurdles in Ireland), he looked like he could be something special on both of those occasions – winning by a wide margin over 2m 4f and then demonstrating a nice turn of foot when dropping back to 2m. Oscars Well has the stronger form having won two Grade 1 races and did particularly well to win dropping back to 2m 2f last time against high quality opposition. First Lieutenant could give the Irish an 1-2-3 as I don't fancy the Henderson pair of Bobs Worth (solid but not a superstar) or Minella Class (ran poorly last time) much to improve on his disastrous 0-21 record in the race. In fact, I don't like the British challenge much, which also includes Rock On Ruby who I don't think is up to this. If there is to be a horse to run into the frame at double-figure odds maybe Tornado Bob is the one for last season's winning stable of Donald McCain Jnr. He should like the ground, has the trademark tough stamp imprinted on him from this yard and would have won at Ascot last time out but for slipping at the final flight. Previous Report: 7th March 2011
It's swings and roundabouts regarding current running plans for the Henderson horses. The latest seems to be that Bobs Worth and Minella Class both run and maybe also Prince Of Pirates. It is my view, however, that the Irish are stronger and could easily have a 1-2-3 with Oscars Well, So Young and First Lieutenant. Donald McCain confirmed on Thursday that Tornado Bob runs here and he gave him an each-way chance. I was surprised to hear Noel Fehily state Rock on Ruby isn't good enough to win a Neptune given he has ridden him, which hopefully underlines my view that the Irish form is stronger. His comment should therefore be seen as some kind of negative to Bob Worth's chance who did not beat him far last time out. Day Of A Lifetime would be interesting if switched here from the Supreme in the Zaidpour colours, which has to be a possibility rather than take each other on. Bet Now... RSA Chase
I have no doubt that Time For Rupert will be hard to beat but I've seen so many good looking, solid favourites get turned over in festival novice chases and reckon this is a far deeper renewal than most. He has everything you look for in an RSA winner in that he has class, stays, jumps, battles and loves the course, except the likely starting price. Connections of Jessies Dream will be hoping it stays dry for him being by good-ground sire Presenting so he should improve on his already smart form on soft ground and also for the step up to three miles. On close to Good ground I really think he can give Time For Rupert a heck of a lot to think about. I am dead against the second-favourite Aiteen Thirtythree who I think is a real stayer and could get found out on these twists and turns on decent ground as I think he is a soft-ground, galloping track horse. Mikael D'Haguenet will shorten up plenty if rumours that Ruby Walsh rides him in preference to Aiteen Thirtythree but given that he doesn't look natural jumping left-handed and he is a maiden over fences, I couldn't back him. It is looking like his stablemate Quel Esprit may join him but I have him down as a real soft-ground horse so conditions are unlikely to suit as is the case for Quito De La Roque. Wymott and Wayward Prince are the unflashy stayers - just the kind that wins this race - so a victory for either would not surprise me. I would be surprised if Master Of The Hall is an RSA type and I don't think Bostons Angel or The Giant Bolster are good enough. If he runs here rather than the Jewson, I would respect Wishfull Thinking's each-way chance, but he still needs to prove his stamina. Previous Report: 7th March 2011
Noel Fehily commented last week on a Preview Evening panel that he would be surprised if Paul Nicholls ran Aiteen Thirtythree if it is good ground, as he wants some give underfoot. Significant I think given his connection to the yard. Richard Johnson also commented that he felt Aiteen Thirtythree needs a real galloping track and Cheltenham could find him out having followed him home on Tarablaze at Newbury which has been my thinking on him since he won at Newbury a couple of weeks back. It seems like Quel Esprit will run here and probably Mikael D'Haguenet too in a bid to give Mullins a fourth win in the race. I couldn't have the former on anything other than soft ground and feel the latter doesn't like jumping fences right handed. Jessies Dream is still my idea as the chief threat to the warm favourite Time For Rupert if the ground comes up good. Wymott and Wayward Prince are the two unflashy but highly talented staying types in the race towards the head of the betting and, in truth, that is often the profile of the RSA Chase winner. Bet Now... Queen Mother Champion Chase
Big Zeb is the best two-miler around and I expect him to beat Master Minded who I just don't think will let himself down on similar ground to last year's race. Big Zeb has been the best two-mile chaser around for a couple of seasons for my money and he will take plenty of beating on decent ground. Master Minded looked good on his first two starts this season but only just held off Somersby last time out. Somersby hasn't won for almost 18 months and will have to be ridden aggressively or will leave himself too much to do. Captain Cee Bee has twice burst blood vessels in the heat of action so that would be a concern though the ground is coming right for him as it is for Woolcombe Folly who could be very good but is probably a little under-priced. French Opera looks too exposed to win but can run his usual solid race on his favourite course. Golden Silver looks overpriced in relation to Big Zeb on this season's form. He didn't travel over well when beaten in the Arkle and was ridden too aggressively in last year's race. However, I can see him picking off horses one by one under his new exaggerated waiting tactics especially if Mad Max blasts off followed by Sizing Europe as the faster they go, the more it will suit his new tactics that have brought round enough improvement. There has been plenty of each-way money for Sizing Europe this week and little wonder given that the last 12 reigning Arkle Trophy winners to run here have all placed at worst. Previous Report: 7th March 2011
Master Minded would struggle to beat Big Zeb on decent ground is a recurring argument over the last week as punters are cottoning on to the warnings that the former dual Champion needs a cut in the ground these days. In fact, after finishing fourth in last season's race, Ruby Walsh commented that he wouldn't let himself down on the ground, so it is probably best to wait as long as possible to assess his chance. The Irish are strong, as in addition to the reigning champion Big Zeb, they also have Golden Silver, Captain Cee Bee and Sizing Europe in their ranks. The latter is interesting each-way as the last 12 reigning Arkle Trophy title-holders to run in the following season's Champion Chase all place at worst, with five winning. Somersby and Woolcombe Folly are two upwardly mobile second-season chasers fancied by many to make this the most open renewal for years as genuine cases can be argued for at least seven horses. One horse that will not make it however is Tataniano who Paul Nicholls conceded will not be ready in time having incurred a small setback in February. Bet Now... Coral Cup
With 28 declarations this is the biggest field of the week. For Non Stop has to have every chance on his second to Grands Crus off 135 given that Aeroplane is now on 169 which is why he's near enough favourite for Nick Williams who is brilliant at getting one ready for a big day and whose two runners in this race were both placed at 16/1 and 20/1. Call The Police looks the pick of the Irish but is getting short enough alongside Sir Des Champs and Alaivan for the Edward O'Grady yard that have twice won this race with class acts. Bothy would be better off in the County Hurdle on age stats for me. I would prefer Notus De La Tour of the totesport trophy runners. He was in the Champion Hurdle until fairly recently as was Walkon who loves this course and is a major player for Alan King. I like Solix most of the Henderson horses as he looked like he needed this longer trip from his totesport Trophy run and he represents the same owner and trainer combination that won this last year with Spirit River. The yard also has Aegean Dawn who was a late withdrawal from the Imperial Cup on Saturday, which would concern me. Bet Now... Fred Winter Juvenile Novices' Hurdle
Plan A looked an ideal type for this race when winning on his debut for Gordon Elliott last time out after two runs for Mick Quinlan in Britain. He found plenty of trouble in running but he still won cosily in the end and not by very far, which is ideal for handicapping purposes. I like the fact one of his two defeats over hurdles was at Cheltenham (third to Sam Winner and Grandouet) so he has seen the place. Tenor Nivernais has been the big mover this week for the in-form Venetia Williams yard and there has also been good money for Titan De Sarti who is said to be an exceptional worker at home (beats Grandouet) and hasn't had his required close to Good ground yet in three starts over hurdles. The profile I like is two defeats followed by a last-time-out win in a three hurdles start career which Plan A has, as does Paintball, Whitby Jack and Kayef so keep an eye out for those. Bet Now... Weatherbys Champion Bumper
The Irish have won 14 of the 18 runners here with Willie Mullins winning it on six occasions, so his Allure Of Illusion is as good a starting point as any. He won his only start back in August so has a similar profile to Joe Cullen who won this race for Mullins back in 2000. Raise The Beat is a second Irish horse to look out for. My gut is telling me he could be the one the Irish really come for on the day. He looked great when last seen 5 months ago quickening well having travelled smoothly throughout. Colm Murphy trained Zaarito to be third in this race a few years ago and this would be his best chance since. Knight Pass and Cinders And Ashes are the best of the Brits for me. Knight Pass has looked very good on both starts looking all class and Cinders And Ashes looks a big improver for me, stepping up in trip having narrowly lost out to Keys last time who would be near enough favourite if he ran. The rumour mill has been working with regards to Divine Rhapsody and it wouldn't surprise me if Bygones Of Brid turned round Newbury form with Ericht as he travelled well but lacked experience in the final furlong. Star Neuville brings winning Leopardstown Christmas Meeting bumper form to the table like three winners of this race and it will be interesting to see which of Cheltenian and Persian Snow rides for Philip Hobbs as I have been hearing positive things about both. Previous Report: 7th March 2011
Noel Fehily rode the ante-post favourite Knight Pass to both his wins so it was quite interesting to note that he said he would be slightly concerned whether he could get buzzed up by the occasion. With Samain not entered last week, that means Allure Of Illusion will be the Mullins number-one hope in his bid for a staggering seventh win in the race. Punters have backed him to the point he is on the verge of favouritism. He has not run since August but that did not stop the same stable's Joe Cullen from winning this race back in 2000. You can easily see the Irish punters getting stuck into him as, surprisingly, British-trained horses dominate the market responsible for most of those in the top dozen in the betting. Star Neuville and Raise The Beat are the next best Irish-trained fancies for the Shark Hanlon and Colm Murphy stables respectively. Donald McCain Jnr stated Cinders And Ashes would run here and he would probably save Ebanour for Aintree. He also commented that he can't wait to run this four-year-old over the longer trip of the Champion Bumper. Richard Johnson commented if the ground was close to Good he would prefer to ride Persian Snow to Cheltenian arguing he got stuck in softish ground last time out. Alan King ruled Montbazon out yesterday who was fancied by many and suggested it was more likely than not that he will take on Ericht again with Bygones Of Brid who beat him at Newbury when he ran green. Bet Now... |
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